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Is Texas New-Home Demand Defying Gravity? A Look Market By Market

by Christie Cannon

Article by: Brad Hunter, Forbes Magazine

 

Despite the double-whammy of an oil price collapse and a global economic shutdown, the housing market in Texas is hotter than a stolen tamale.

New home permitting activity in Houston for the first half of this year is running at about the same level as it was in 2019, which is amazing enough. Sales at the largest and most active master-planned communities were up sharply in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period last year, which is nothing short of amazing.

New data from RCLCO show that sales shot up 21% at the Bridgeland community in Houston, up from 351 homes sold during the first half of 2019 to 425 in the first six months of 2020. Balmoral, a community in Houston developed by Land Tejas, is up 143%, and that’s off of an already high level of sales — 168 in the first half of 2019 and 409 sales in the first half of this year. Houston has become a highly diversified economy over the past thirty years, no longer dependent upon the oil extraction sector, and those industries that use oil as an input do better when oil prices go lower.

And it’s not just Houston. Austin master-planned communities are hotter than a fur coat in Marfa. Easton Park, by Brookfield Residential, saw a doubling of sales since early 2019. Sunfield, a development by Scarborough Lane, is up 33% in the first half, and Santa Rita Ranch, by Mariner Real Estate Development, is up 30%. These are incredibly strong increases, particularly during a period of economic disruption.

In Dallas, some new-home developments are moving even faster. Hillwood Communities’ Union Park master-planned community saw a 64% surge in sales, and Viridian, a community belonging to Johnson Development, saw a 37% increase. Johnson Development’s Trinity Falls project surged 65% in the first half. Also in Dallas, Wood Creek, by SouthStar Communities, sold 247 homes in the first half of 2020.

Demand is strong while supply is tight. The inventory of homes available for purchase remains extremely limited throughout Texas, and the shortage got worse during the current crisis. The biggest decline in listings has been in the Austin area were there were 32% fewer houses listed for sale in June compared with June 2019, according to the Texas Realtors’ Association. The low levels of supply are keeping prices high.

The concern on the demand side is of course the Covid wild card. Cases are surging in Texas, and this could still cause problems in the economy and in real estate, but so far the pandemic has not held back housing. Some builders report that people are more eager than ever to buy in their suburban communities in order to get away from crowded cities or to get out of a dense apartment building.

 

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Home Sales Hit a Record-Setting Rebound

by Christie Cannon

Home Sales Hit a Record-Setting Rebound

Home Sales Hit a Record-Setting Rebound | MyKCM
 

With a worldwide health crisis that drove a pause in the economy this year, the housing market was greatly impacted. Many have been eagerly awaiting some bright signs of a recovery. Based on the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), June hit a much-anticipated record-setting rebound to ignite that spark.

According to NARhome sales jumped 20.7% from May to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million in June: 

“Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, showing strong signs of a market turnaround after three straight months of sales declines caused by the ongoing pandemic…Each of the four major regions achieved month-over-month growth.”

Home Sales Hit a Record-Setting Rebound | MyKCMThis significant rebound is a major boost for the housing market and the U.S. economy. According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, the momentum has the potential to continue on, too:

“The sales recovery is strong, as buyers were eager to purchase homes and properties that they had been eyeing during the shutdown…This revitalization looks to be sustainable for many months ahead as long as mortgage rates remain low and job gains continue.”

With mortgage rates hitting an all-time low, dropping below 3% for the first time last week, potential homebuyers are poised to continue taking advantage of this historic opportunity to buy. This fierce competition among buyers is contributing to home price increases as well, as more buyers are finding themselves in bidding wars in this environment. The report also notes:

“The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $295,300, up 3.5% from June 2019 ($285,400), as prices rose in every region. June’s national price increase marks 100 straight months of year-over-year gains.”

The graph below shows home price increases by region, powered by low interest rates, pent-up demand, and a decline in inventory on the market:Home Sales Hit a Record-Setting Rebound | MyKCMYun also indicates:

“Home prices rose during the lockdown and could rise even further due to heavy buyer competition and a significant shortage of supply.”

Bottom Line

Buyers returning to the market is a great sign for the economy, as housing is still leading the way toward a recovery. If you’re ready to buy a home this year, let’s connect to make sure you have the best possible guide with you each step of the way.

Thinking of Selling Your House? Now May be the Right Time

by Christie Cannon

Thinking of Selling Your House? Now May be the Right Time

Thinking of Selling Your House? Now May be the Right Time | MyKCM
 

Inventory is arguably the biggest challenge for buyers in today’s housing market. There are simply more buyers actively looking for homes to purchase than there are sellers selling them, so the scale is tipped in favor of the sellers.

According to the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), total housing inventory is down 18.8% from one year ago. Inventory is well below what was available last year, and the houses that do come to the market are selling very quickly.

Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac notes:

“Simply put, new housing supply is not keeping up with rising demand. We estimate that the housing market is undersupplied by 3.3 million units, and the shortage is rising by about 300,000 units a year. More than half of all states have a housing shortage.”

Why is inventory so low?

There are many reasons why it’s hard to find a home to buy today, stemming from an undersupply of newly constructed homes to sellers pressing pause on their moving plans due to the current health pandemic. One of the key factors making it even more challenging, however, is the amount of time current homeowners are staying in their homes. There has truly been a fundamental shift in the market that started about 10 years ago: people are staying put longer, and it’s contributing to the shortage of houses for sale.

In the 2019 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, NAR explained:

“In 2019, the median tenure for sellers was 10 years…After 2008, the median tenure in the home began to increase by one year each year. By 2011, the median tenure reached nine years, where it remained for three consecutive years, and jumped up again in 2014 to 10 years.”

As shown in the graph below, historical data indicates that staying in a home for 5-7 years used to be the norm, until the housing bubble burst. Since 2010, that length of time has trended upward, toward 9-10 years, largely due to homeowners aiming to recoup their equity:Thinking of Selling Your House? Now May be the Right Time | MyKCMThankfully, with the strength the market has gained over the last 10 years, today’s homeowners are in a much better equity position. Now is a fantastic time for homeowners who are ready to make a move to break the 10-year trend and sell their houses, especially while buyer demand is so high and inventory is so low. It’s a prime time to sell.

In addition, with today’s historically low interest rates, there’s an opportunity for sellers to maintain a low monthly payment while getting more house for their money. Think: move-up opportunity, more square footage, or finding the features they’re really looking for rather than doing costly renovations. With more new homes poised to enter the market this year, homeowners ready to make a move may have a golden opportunity to do so right now.

Bottom Line

There are simply not enough houses for sale today. If you’re ready to leverage your equity and sell your house, let’s connect today. It’s a great time to move while demand for homes to buy is extremely high.

Does Your Home Have What Buyers Are Looking For?

by Christie Cannon

Does Your Home Have What Buyers Are Looking For?

Does Your Home Have What Buyers Are Looking For? | MyKCM
 

There’s great opportunity for today’s homeowners to sell their houses and make a move, yet due to the impact of the ongoing health crisis, some sellers are taking their time coming back to the market. According to Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research at realtor.com:

“Sellers continue returning to the market at a cautious pace and further improvement could be constrained by lingering coronavirus concerns, economic uncertainty, and civil unrest.”

For homeowners who need a little nudge of motivation to get back in the game, it’s good to know that buyers are ready to purchase this season. After spending several months at home and re-evaluating what they truly want and need in their space, buyers are ready and they’re in the market now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“A number of potential buyers noted stalled plans due to the pandemic and that has led to more urgency and a pent-up demand to buy…After being home for months on end – in a home they already wanted to leave – buyers are reminded how much their current home may lack certain desired features or amenities.”

The latest Market Recovery Survey from NAR shares some of the features and amenities buyers are looking for, especially since the health crisis has shifted many buyer priorities. The most common home features cited as increasingly important are home offices and space to accommodate family members new to the residence (See graph below):Does Your Home Have What Buyers Are Looking For? | MyKCMThe survey results also show that among buyers who indicate they would now like to live in a different area due to COVID-19, 47% have an interest in purchasing in the suburbs, 39% cite rural areas, and 25% indicate a desire to be in small towns.

As we can see, buyers are eager to find a new home, but there’s a big challenge in the market: a lack of homes available to purchase. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com explains:

“The realtor.com June Housing Trends Report showed that buyers still outnumber sellers which is causing the gap in time on market to shrink, prices to grow at a faster pace than pre-COVID, and the number of homes available for sale to decrease by more than last month. These trends play out similarly in the most recent week’s data with the change in time on market being most notable. In the most recent week homes sat on the market just 7 days longer than last year whereas the rest of June saw homes sit 2 weeks or more longer than last year.”

In essence, home sales are picking up speed and buyers are purchasing them at a faster rate than they’re coming to the market. Hale continues to say:

“The housing market has plenty of buyers who would benefit from a few more sellers. If the virus can be contained and home prices continue to grow, this may help bring sellers back to the housing market.”

Bottom Line

If you’re considering selling and your current house has some of the features today’s buyers are looking for, let's connect. You’ll likely be able to sell at the best price, in the least amount of time, and will be able to take advantage of the low interest rates available right now when buying your new home.

Buyers: Are You Ready for a Bidding War?

by Christie Cannon

Buyers: Are You Ready for a Bidding War?

Buyers: Are You Ready for a Bidding War? | MyKCM
 

With businesses reopening throughout the country and some experts indicating early signs of a much-anticipated economic recovery, more homebuyers are actively entering the housing market this summer. Today, housing is truly driving the U.S. economy forward. With so many buyers looking for homes to purchase and so few houses for sale right now, there’s a disconnect between supply and demand. This imbalance is pushing home prices upward while driving more bidding wars and multiple-offer scenarios. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com explains:

“People are surprised that prices are rising, not falling, because in the last recession home prices fell, the difference this time is the severe shortage of homes for sale…We are seeing bigger price increases with [a limited] number of homes...That is likely to lead to more competition and potentially multiple offers and bidding wars.”

According to the recent Realtors Confidence Index (RCI) survey conducted by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), this trend is growing:

“On average, there were about three offers on a home that closed in May, up from just about two in April 2020 and in May 2019 (2.3 offers).”

HousingWire also indicates:

"42% of homeowners who made a purchase during the January to May time period ended up in a bidding war, demonstrating the strong demand for homes amid low inventory."

With more people returning to work we’ll continue to see the number of interested buyers increase. So, if you’re among the many people looking for a home to buy this summer, it’s important to ensure you have the right guidance from the start. This way, you make sure your offer stands out from the crowd when it really counts. Here are two tips to follow.

1. Hire a Trusted Local Expert

A trusted local real estate professional matters more than ever right now, as noted in a recent survey shared by NAR. In fact, according to respondents, 54% of buyers and 62% of sellers indicated that “Particularly during the pandemic, a real estate agent’s guidance is especially valued.”

We’re not in a normal market. We are in one of the greatest health crises our nation has ever seen. The pandemic has had a dramatic impact on the journey consumers must take to purchase a home. To successfully navigate the landscape today, you need a true expert on your side.

2. Get Pre-Approved for a Mortgage

When there are more buyers than sellers on the market, the process to find a home becomes much more challenging. One way to show you’re serious about buying a home is to work with a lender to get pre-approved for a mortgage before starting your search. With a pre-approval letter, sellers will see your true desire to buy this year, potentially helping your offer rise to the top.

Bottom Line

If this is the year you’re ready to buy, let’s connect to get the process started so you can make sure your offer is a strong one when the competition heats up.

Best Time to Sell? When Competition Is at an All-Time Low

by Christie Cannon

Best Time to Sell? When Competition Is at an All-Time Low

Best Time to Sell? When Competition Is at an All-Time Low | MyKCM
 

In a recent survey of home sellers by Qualtrics, 87% of respondents said they were concerned their home won’t sell because of the pandemic and resulting economic recession. Of the respondents, 51% said they are “seriously worried.” That concern seems reasonable considering the current condition of the economy. The data, however, is showing that home purchasers are still very active despite the disruptions American families have experienced this year.

The latest Existing Home Sales Report published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed that 340,000 single-family homes sold in this country last month. NAR’s most recent Pending Sales Report (homes going into contract) surpassed last month’s number by over 44%, which far exceeded analysts’ projections of 15%. ShowingTime reported that appointments to see homes (both virtually and in-person) have increased in every region of the country and are up 21.4% nationwide over the same time last year.

While buyer activity is surging, the number of listings has fallen to an all-time low. Zelman Associates, in their latest residential real estate report, revealed that housing inventory as a percentage of households has fallen to 1.2%, which is half of the long-term average and lower than any other time in our history.

Bidding Wars Heating Up Again

With buyer demand growing and the supply of available homes shrinking, purchasers are again finding themselves needing to outbid other buyers. NAR, in a recent blog post, revealed:

“On average, there were about three offers on a home that closed in May, up from just about two in April 2020 and in May 2019 (2.3 offers).”

Bidding wars guarantee houses sell quickly at a price near or even slightly over the listing price.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of selling, don’t be concerned about putting your house on the market right now. There’s no better time to sell an item than when demand for it is high and supply is low. It is exactly at that time when you will negotiate your best possible deal.

Taking Advantage of Homebuying Affordability in Today’s Market

by Christie Cannon

Taking Advantage of Homebuying Affordability in Today’s Market

Taking Advantage of Homebuying Affordability in Today’s Market | MyKCM
 

Everyone is ready to buy a home at different times in their lives, and despite the health crisis, today is no exception. Understanding how affordability works and the main market factors that impact it may help those who are ready to buy a home narrow down their optimal window of time to make a purchase.

There are three main factors that go into determining how affordable homes are for buyers:

  1. Mortgage Rates
  2. Mortgage Payments as a Percentage of Income
  3. Home Prices

The National Association of Realtors (NAR), produces a Housing Affordability Index, which takes these three factors into account and determines an overall affordability score for housing. According to NAR, the index:

“…measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the national and regional levels based on the most recent price and income data.”

Their methodology states:

“To interpret the indices, a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment.”

So, the higher the index, the more affordable it is to purchase a home. Here’s a graph of the index going back to 1990:Taking Advantage of Homebuying Affordability in Today’s Market | MyKCMThe green bar represents today’s affordability. We can see that homes are more affordable now than they have been at any point since the housing crash when distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) dominated the market. Those properties were sold at large discounts not seen before in the housing market.

Why are homes so affordable today?

Although there are three factors that drive the overall equation, the one that’s playing the largest part in today’s homebuying affordability is historically low mortgage rates. Based on this primary factor, we can see that it is more affordable to buy a home today than at any time in the last seven years.

If you’re considering purchasing your first home or moving up to the one you’ve always hoped for, it’s important to understand how affordability plays into the overall cost of your home. With that in mind, buying while mortgage rates are as low as they are now may save you quite a bit of money over the life of your home loan.

Bottom Line

If you feel ready to buy, purchasing a home this season may save you significantly over time based on historic affordability trends. Let’s connect today to determine if now is the right time for you to make your move.

50 Owner's Retreat Inspirations

by Christie Cannon

Often we find ourselves putting the owner's retreat on the back burner in terms of decorating.  We make sure main rooms such as the living room, kitchen and dining room are well decorated so that it makes a great impression for guests, but what about YOU?

Here are 50 color inspirations from HGTV to inspire you to spruce up your bedroom!  Your Owner's retreat should be a place to escape and relax at the end of the day, so make it beautiful!

 

https://www.hgtv.com/design/rooms/bedrooms/inviting-master-bedroom-color-schemes-pictures

 

What Are the Experts Saying About Future Home Prices?

by Christie Cannon

What Are the Experts Saying About Future Home Prices?

What Are the Experts Saying About Future Home Prices? | MyKCM
 

A worldwide pandemic and an economic recession have had a tremendous effect on the nation. The uncertainty brought about by both has made predicting consumer behavior nearly impossible. For that reason, forecasting home prices has become extremely difficult.

Normally, there’s a simple formula to determine the future price of any item: calculate the supply of that item in ratio to the demand for that item. In housing right now, demand far exceeds supply. Mortgage applications to buy a home just rose to the highest level in 11 years while inventory of homes for sale is at (or near) an all-time low. That would usually indicate strong appreciation for home values as we move throughout the year.

Some experts, however, are not convinced the current rush of purchasers is sustainable. Ralph McLaughlin, Chief Economist at Haus, explained in their June 2020 Hausing Market Forecast why there is concern:

“The upswing that we’ll see this summer is a result of pent-up demand from homebuyers and supply-in-progress from homebuilders that has simply been pushed off a few months. However, after this pent-up demand goes away, the true economic scarring due to the pandemic will begin to affect the housing market as the tide of pent-up demand goes out.”

The virus and other challenges currently impacting the industry have created a wide range of thoughts regarding the future of home prices. Here’s a list of analysts and their projections, from the lowest depreciation to the highest appreciation:

We can garner two important points from this list:

  1. There is no real consensus among the experts.
  2. No one projects prices to crash like they did in 2008.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re thinking of buying a home or selling your house, know that home prices will not change dramatically this year, even with all of the uncertainty we’ve faced in 2020.

 

Article by:   – Staff Writer, Dallas Business Journal

North Texas is welcoming thousands of millennials to the area, though the Dallas may not have benefited as much recently. That's according to some new research.

Four cities in North Texas ranked among the top 20 in the nation for net migration, according to the latest analysis by SmartAsset, a financial-information provider. Texas was the clear No. 1 among the states.

Among cities, Fort Worth came in at No. 11; McKinney took No. 13; Irving was No. 18, and Frisco grabbed No. 20. The rankings, which had even stronger showings by Austin, Houston and San Antonio, were based on Census Bureau data from 2018.

Millennials are playing an increasingly important role in local economics – including Dallas-Fort Worth – as companies look for young talent in areas such as software development, cybersecurity, marketing and finance. It’s a generation that is inclined to move more – and that could be the case even more as COVID-19 shakes up people’s lives.

Still, Dallas itself did not make the top 25 list. And that came after being at the top of the rankings in the release last year.

The city had a net migration of number of negative 1,922, even with more than 12,000 moving into Dallas from another state, a spokesperson said.

Yet there have been fluctuations with the report. Dallas didn’t make the list the previous two years before grabbing the top spot, the spokesperson said. And there was some change in the approach to the data. SmartAsset looked at those between the ages of 25 and 39 to account for the generation getting older. Formerly, it was between 20 and 34.

New research by the National Association of Realtors puts the Dallas area among the top ten markets for millennial homebuyers during the pandemic. Others in Texas included the Austin and Houston metros.

 

 

“Record-low mortgage rates have improved housing affordability, bringing more buyers into the market, and multiple offers for starter homes could become common in these metro areas,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, in the report.

Millennials make up about 30 percent of North Texas, and 44 percent of the renters in that group can afford to buy a home, the research said.

In the SmartAsset report, the winners, amid the moves, tend to be cities with no income tax – making Texas locales a stronger choice. Other states of choice include Washington, which was No. 2, along with Colorado, Georgia and Florida in the top five.

New York City fared the worst in the nation. It had a net migration losses of more than 50,000. Chicago was No. 2 while others in the top ten included Washington, D.C., San Diego, Calif., and Provo, Utah.

Earlier this year, Fred Balda, president of Dallas-based Hillwood Communities, talked up the arrival of millennials in the local region. The firm is one of North Texas’ largest developers of masterplanned residential projects.

Families aren’t making up as much of the customer base these days, Balda said.

“The millennial buyers are coming in droves now, and they’re buying off the phone, so how we market to them is a little bit different than how we’ve dealt in the past,” Balda said in an interview published in early March.

Check out the list here!

 

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Christie Cannon
Keller Williams Realty
5933 Preston Road #300
Frisco TX 75034
972-215-7747
Fax: 972-215-7748
Keller Williams Frisco - The Christie Cannon Team - http://www.christiecannon.com